Box Office Predictions: ‘ID42’ Competes With ‘Dory’ For #1

It is entirely possible that Independence Day 2 loses to the second weekend of Finding Dory. If Dory had a steep decline of 60%, it would be on track for 55M. Now, if Independence Day 2 disappoints, it might fall short of that. Right now, tracking seems to suggest an opening of 60-65M, but summer has been brutal to a few films so far, which leaves ID4 in the line of sight of Dory. The other two new releases, The Shallows and Free State Of Jones will struggle to make much more than 10M in their first outings. The Neon Demon won’t crack the top 12.

Don’t cry too much for these films. Even though X-Men Apocalypse is disappointing domestically, it still has over 500M worldwide (currently the 8th biggest film of the year). Warcraft has made over 340M overseas, which could mean there might still be a Warcraft 2. Angry Birds barely climbed above 100M domestically, but has over 224M overseas and counting. Johnny Depp is still a big overseas draw, and has made 167M off shore (granted, it’s still tracking way below the original). Offshore money is a big deal nowadays, and in a world where Warcraft can make 204M in China alone (so far), studios are looking more and more for global hits. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we got a Warcraft sequel.

Next weekend brings The BFG, The Purge 3, and the biggest question mark with The Legend of Tarzan. Is it a hit, or a flop?

1) Independence Day 2- 65M Weekend, 65M Total
2) Finding Dory- 55M Weekend, 260M Total
3) Central Intelligence- 16M Weekend, 66M Total
4) The Shallows- 12M Weekend, 12M Total
5) Free State Of Jones- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
6) The Conjuring 2- 8M Weekend, 87M Total
7) Now You See Me 2- 5M Weekend, 51M Total
8) Warcraft- 4M Weekend, 46M Total
9) X-Men Apocalypse- 3.5M Weekend, 151M Total
10) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2- 3M Weekend, 77M Total
11) Alice Through The Looking Glass- 2.5M Weekend, 74M Total
12) Me Before You- 2.5M Weekend, 50M Total

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