Box Office Predictions: A New ‘Arrival’ Challenges The ‘Doctor’

I’m kidding. Arrival won’t beat Dr Strange. It’s more of a cerebral alien film, and less like Independence Day. However, the 100% on Rotten Tomatoes that they’re promoting should send more people to the theatres than initially expected. Anyone who is on the fence has to be curious about this universally beloved film. However, last weekend, all three new releases earned an A cinemascore, which should lead to strong word of mouth for all three in their second weekends. People will still be wanting to check out whatever they didn’t see last weekend, either Strange, Trolls, or Hacksaw.

Couple that with two other new entries, and we have a very interesting weekend. Almost Christmas is trying to take a chunk out of that pie too, but I think it’ll have to settle for mid-teens and probably 4th place. Shut In isn’t looking good. It feels more like a burn off release, and I think audiences see that. It should be one of the more “rejected” titles of the weekend.

Of course, someone had to come along and spoil the party. Arrival no longer has a 100%, though I think the commercials touting that have already made their impact. It currently sits at 97%, which is still higher than Strange (90%), Hacksaw Ridge (86%), and Trolls (73%). Shut In hasn’t been screened for critics (never a good sign) and Almost Christmas (which I’m surprised DID screen for critics) sits at 50% (not bad, considering).

In limited release, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk hopes to garner some attention before expanding next weekend against Fantastic Beasts and Edge of Seventeen. Is the marketplace big enough for TWO war dramas?

1) Doctor Strange- 42M Weekend, 153M Total
2) Trolls- 30M Weekend, 89M Total
3) Arrival- 17M Weekend. 17M Total
4) Almost Christmas- 13M Weekend, 13M Total
5) Hacksaw Ridge- 10M Weekend, 33M Total
6) Shut In- 6M Weekend. 6M Total
7) Boo! A Madea Halloween- 4M Weekend, 71M Total
8) The Accountant- 3.5M Weekend, 75M Total
9) Inferno- 3M Weekend, 32M Total
10) Jack Reacher 2- 2.5M Weekend, 54M Total

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