Box Office Predictions: ‘Logan’ Set To Dissect Competition

The final Wolverine film opens this weekend, which will mean that the top two films at the box office are both rated R films. That seems unusual, sure. Is Logan another Deadpool? That’s a little unlikely. Deadpool was its own thing, surprising everyone at 132M in its first weekend. Logan is part of a clearly defined universe, and the third solo outing by the character. So, you have to take into account the rest of the franchise. The Wolverine opened to 53M, down from the opening of X-Men Origins at 85M. As far as the X-Men franchise goes, X3 was the highest opener at 102.7M, followed by Days Of Future Past at 90.8M. No X-Men film has opened below The Wolverine at 53M.

Logan is currently tracking (safely) at 70M. I think the reviews for this film, which are currently at a spectacular 93%, will help this film go above that. Anyone who was worried that this film might suck, they’re now being told how excellent the film is by a barrage of critics. It’s the Wolverine film everyone has been waiting for, and it’s a sendoff to a character we’ve seen for the last 17 years, spanning nine films. This is an event movie for many people, and it will definitely overperform. But by how much? I don’t think Logan can do Deadpool’s business. I don’t even think it can hit 100M. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it just fell a little short.

Also opening this weekend are The Shack and Before I Fall. The Shack is based on a best-selling novel, and has a faith based grab along with it. I’m betting the 10M+ copies sold of the book is what will help the movie the most this weekend, as faith-based audiences haven’t been helping movies since last years Miracles From Heaven. The other, Before I Fall, is a teen “Groundhog Day” drama. Unless I’m missing something, this film has been severely undermarketed. I don’t think it’s going to be a big hit at all.

Moonlight is also going to push ino 1,500 screens, however it is already available for home viewing, so I can’t imagine that will push the film back in the top 10. Anna Kendrick’s Table 19 opens in a few hundred screens, and Shirley Maclaine opens The Last Word. I expect The Last Word to play well throughout March, eventually cracking the Top 10 like Hello My Name Is Doris did last year.

Among the holdovers, look for Get Out to drop 35-40% (it has a 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, and an A- cinemascore), and The LEGO Batman movie will continue to do well against its R rated competition. John Wick 2 will inch closer to 100M, but I don’t think it will cross it. We’ve already had an impressive start to the year with Split, LEGO Batman, and Fifty Shades Darker all crossing 100M (and Hidden Figures, while a 2016 release, really made all its money in 2017). Get Out is on track to hit 100M as well, and Logan will also likely do that. Couple that with Beauty and the Beast being projected to open above 100M, and Kong Skull Island right around the corner, and we could have 7-8 100M hits before we reach April.

1) Logan- 80M Weekend, 80M Total
2) Get Out- 20M Weekend, 69M Total
3) The LEGO Batman Movie- 12M Weekend, 148M Total
4) The Shack- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
5) John Wick 2- 6M Weekend, 83M Total
6) The Great Wall- 4.5M Weekend, 41M Total
7) Before I Fall- 4M Weekend, 4M Total
8) Fifty Shades Darker- 3.5M Weekend, 109M Total
9) Fist Fight- 3.5M Weekend, 28M Total
10) Hidden Figures- 3M Weekend, 158M Total

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