Box Office Predictions: ‘The Mummy’ Will Fall To ‘Wonder Woman’

I had kinda projected that The Mummy was going to be a slight disappointment for Universal, and now I’m certain it will be. Wonder Woman’s opening, even if it dropped a lot, would still give it a hearty second weekend. It’s the kind of second weekend that would be hard for Tom Cruise’s The Mummy to beat. The way this summer has been, crushing film after film, I can’t imagine The Mummy being a breakout surprise, especially considering the studios need for a review embargo this late in the game. The film literally opens for previews tomorrow night, and there are no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes? I’m assuming this film blows chunks and they know it.

If we look at Tom Cruise’s non-franchise (non Mission Impossible) openings, we find that he’s cooled down a bit in recent years. Edge Of Tomorrow launched to 28M, Oblivion started with 37M (though, not a summer release), the first Jack Reacher was a 15M opening, and Rock Of Ages was a 14M. So now he’s relaunching The Mummy, and the film has been put entirely on his shoulders in terms of marketing, despite the presence of Russell Crowe, who is a marketable quantity in his own right. Though if The Mummy flops, the downplaying of Crowe in the previews will leave him unscathed, and just target Cruise.

There is an audience for this film though. The first Mummy opened to 43M in 1999, which would be even bigger now with inflation. The sequel made 68M opening weekend, and broke 200M at the box office. The third… well… it did manage to break 100M domestic, so there’s that. The reboot isn’t going the comedy/adventure route that worked so well the first time, and is instead going the dark reboot route. It didn’t work too well for Dracula Untold, which opened to 23M before legging out at 56M. I think The Mummy has a shot at being an OK grosser for Tom Cruise, but not allowing critics to release their reviews in advance of the release always makes me think the movie is secretly terrible. Such a small percentage of films that go this route are actually good.

There are two other wide releases this weekend, the bigger of the two being It Comes At Night, which is hoping to scare up some business this weekend. The trailers have been drumming up buzz, as this is one of those horror films that seems to be worth watching. It has a good RT score right now, though not yet certified fresh. While it is technically opening against a “horror” movie, it’s opening against a PG-13, super tame horror film. Aside from Alien Covenant, this genre has been underserved since Get Out came in February. If word of mouth can carry this film, I’m thinking we could be looking at a 20M sleeper hit here.

The third film opening is Megan Leavey, which I’ve literally seen no previews for. It is a military drama based on a true story, and the reviews (so far) are pretty good. I don’t think it can make a huge splash, but it should be in the top 10. There’s an outside chance that My Cousin Rachel manages to do enough business in 500 screens to crack the top 10.

Next weekend, four new wide releases hit. The biggest, and certain to top the box office, is Cars 3. 47 Meters Down is hoping there’s still life in the shark genre. Rough Night wants to be the comedy sleeper that Baywatch wasn’t. And All Eyez On Me is hoping fans of Tupac will come see his biopic.

1) Wonder Woman- 47M Weekend, 190M Total
2) The Mummy- 35M Weekend, 35M Total,
3) It Comes At Night- 20M Weekend, 20M Total
4) Captain Underpants- 15M Weekend, 46M Total
5) Pirates 5- 11M Weekend, 136M Total
6) Guardians Of The Galaxy vol 2- 6M Weekend, 365M Total
7) Baywatch- 4.5M Weekend, 51M Total
8) Megan Leavey- 4M Weekend, 4M Total
9) Alien Covenant- 2M Weekend, 71M Total
10) Everything Everything- 2M Weekend, 32M Total

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