Barring some absurd exodus of moviegoers from theatres, Annabelle Creation is very much on track to win this weekend. The first Annabelle opened to 37M and finished with 82M domestically. It was pretty despised by critics with a 29%. Much like the Ouija prequel, Annabelle Creation has wowed the critics. Hopefully, this one will fare better than the Ouija prequel did. Annabelle Creation is currently tracking north of 30M. I think it should. There hasn’t been a hit horror movie, really, this entire summer. It Comes At Night bombed. 47 Meters Down disappointed. Wish Upon tanked. I realize horror audiences had a one-two punch of greatness in January/February with Split and Get Out, but it’s been a while since Get Out. I think, considering the lack of competition, Annabelle Creation could go as high as 35-40M.
That leaves us with The Nut Job 2, which might do OK. It’s a sequel no one asked for, but we’re getting anyway. If parents are avoiding The Emoji Movie, they could end up taking their kids to see this instead. The Nut Job 2 is only faring slightly better with critics than Emoji did. Nut Job 2 has a 13% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is still better than Emoji’s 7%. Slightly, but better.
The last lone wide release is The Glass Castle, which I expect very little from. It’s a melodrama opening at the wrong time, and critics are not behind it. Brie Larson is not a proven box office draw. I’d be impressed if it pulled 4M.
Of the holdovers, Spider-Man Homecoming will break 300M, finally, and Girls Trip will be within striking distance of 100M. Baby Driver is also REALLY close to 100M. both films will cross 100M before next weekend, becoming the 19th and 20th films to do so this year, and honestly probably the last two summer releases to do so. Yes, there’s a chance that The Hitman’s Bodyguard pulls a We’re The Millers and becomes a crowd sensation, or that Annabelle Creation has excellent legs, but barring either of those things from happening, we’re pretty much done with summer releases crossing 100M, and honestly 200M and 300M too. Dunkirk is too far away from 200M to make it, and once Spider-Man Homecoming crosses 300M, nothing else is really even remotely close.
1) Annabelle Creation- 37M Weekend, 37M Total
2) Dunkirk- 12M Weekend, 154M Total
3) The Nut Job 2- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
4) The Dark Tower- 8M Weekend, 34M Total
5) Girls Trip- 7M Weekend, 97M Total
6) The Emoji Movie- 6M Weekend, 63M Total
7) Spider-Man Homecoming- 5.5M Weekend, 305M Total
8) Kidnap- 4.5M Weekend, 19M Total
9) Atomic Blonde- 4M Weekend, 42M Total
10) Detroit- 4M Weekend, 14M Total
11) War For The Planet Of The Apes- 3.5M Weekend, 137M Total
12) Despicable Me 3- 3M Weekend, 247M Total
13) The Glass Castle- 2.5M Weekend, 2.5M Total