Oscar nominations are Tuesday morning. Voting has closed. The BAFTA nominees are out. And it’s time. I did fairly well predicting the BAFTA nominees at 80% accuracy and I’m looking to change that here. I won’t bore you to death by going bottom up. I’ll start with the big categories. Because I love my readers.

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All At once

2) The Banshees Of inusharon

3) The Fablemans

4) Top Gun Maverick

5) Tar

6) Elvis

7) Avatar The way of Water

8) All Quiet On The Western Front

9) The Whale

10) RRR

There are basically 7 nominees that most everyone has agreed upon. We have a blood pact of sorts that what I have as the top 7 will get nominations. After seeing the support All Quiet had on the short list, and how it lead at BAFTA, with Netflix pushing it, I don’t see how it doesn’t get in here. The PGA typically is used the most to predict here, and last year they got 8/10 correct. This year, I’m keeping their pick of The Whale, which seems to be moving everyone, and going the route they notoriously don’t, which are foreign titles. This would be a whammy for two international titles to get in, but All Quiet has so much support below the line, and RRR can’t be voted for in International Film. Plus, with rank choice voting, I actually believe there are more voters deeply passionate about RRR than the others I have missing, like Triangle of Sadness, The Glass Onion, Black Panther, Women Talking, The Woman king, or anything else. And those top votes will help. I think it squeezes in. If I’m wrong, I’m saying it’s Babylon in 10th over RRR. I think Babylon, which is another film about Hollywood, and has below the line support has the best shot of upsetting my list.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Steven Spielberg (TheFablemans

The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Todd Field (Tar)

Martin McDonagh (The Banshees Of inusharon)

Edward Burger (All Quiet on The Western Front)

With the female nominees being weaker this year, I think the surprise here is an international nominee, and much how Cold War snuck in here a few years back, so will Burger. I feel pretty good about the others. I suppose there are a few potential upsets, but if I had to pick one over the others, I’d lean on Baz Luhrmann for Elvis. I just don’t think the DGA will match five for five, and Kosinsky was the surprise there. I don’t see a single woman sneaking in. I think Cameron will get the same result Peter Jackson did for The Two Towers. They know Cameron is coming back for the third film. This likely isn’t his time.

BESST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett (Tar)

Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Danielle Detweiler (Till)

Ana De Armas (Blonde)

Viola Davis (The Woman King)

I think De Armas is the nominee that is divisive like Spencer was. Yet, Stewart still gets in. It would be crazy to see a nominee from an NC-17 film that is Rotten on Rotten Tomatoes, but it speaks to the strength of her performance. I think, and I’ve long said, Michelle Williams is vote splitting herself between Lead and Supporting. I think it’s crazy she hasn’t seen her own film. WTF. Babylon is losing momentum, and I think Margot Robbie is done. There’s a very interesting last minute push for Andrea Riseborough in a little film called To Leslie, which i haven’t seen. To those people pushing her, what the fuck is your problem with Dale Dickey? A Love Song is the closest she’s come, and you have to go find some other obscure film at the lat minute? Am I the only one who has seen A Love Song? If I picked the 6th place spoiler here, I think I’m already doing that by going with Armas. 6th place in voting is probably Robbie though.

BEST ACTOR:

Brendan Fraser (The Whale)C

Colin Farrell (The Banshees of inusharon)

Austin Butler (Elvis)

Bill Nighy (Living)

Paul Mescal (Afterson)

I’ll go ahead and say i think the spoiler here is Tom Cruise. It’s not a typical Oscar performance, but outside of the top 3, who are locks from heaven at this point, the question becomes did anyone see their film? At least everyone actually saw Top Gun Maverick. Living, Afterson, and other potential spoilers like Jeremy Pope for The Inspection or Hugh Jackman for The Son are having a hard time being seen. Then we have Gabriel LaBelle for The Fablemans and Diego Calva for Babylon, who are not the main focus of those campaigns. Is Adam Sandler a real possibility here? Are they really going to nominate him for Hustle when they wouldn’t for uncut Gems? So, part of me thinks, Tom Cruise might have a shot still, but Mescal has been peaking at the right time, and A24 has a lot of Oscar campaigns going.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Carrie Condon (The Banshees Of inusharon)

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Stephanie Zu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Dolly Deleon (Triangle of Sadness)

Until recently, I believed Williams would get this category. I actually pulled back because I wonder if her lack of support in some other races might have caused some people to course correct. But I still think there is vote splitting. Supporting Actress is very close, and losing even a few votes could kill her chances. She’s not even my 6th place. That goes to hong Chou for The Whale, who has done really well for herself, but the passion for that film is mostly for Fraser. Chou could upset, but Deleon has been catching on, and I think the other 4 are safe. Sorry sports fans, Women Talking is having a tough year.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Kwon (Everything Everywhere)

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees Of inusharon)

Barry Keogan (The Banshees Of Inisherrin)

Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

I know, I’m going crazy and saying that The Fablemans has lost too much steam, and that hirsch pulls too many votes from Dano. HOWEVER, i fully acknowledge, that Paul Dano is currently in 6th place. i think Henry surprises here, sneaking in since apple has had very little to campaign. From what I’ve heard, the Causeway campaign gave up on Lawrence, and it’s all about getting Henry in this category. Brad Pitt is going to miss for Babylon, hirsch misses for The Fablemans, and Women haven’t been talking about Ben Whishaw.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Women Talking

She Said

All Quiet On The Western Front

The Glass onion

The Whale

i think this category cleans up for a lot of the nominees who hoped they’d get more. These are the only nominations I have projected for Women Talking, She Said, and The Glass onion. I think Living is too small, I’d love to see Pinocchio. Top Gun Maverick is too loud. Same for Avatar and Black Panther. if I had to predict a spoiler here? I’ll go with The Quiet Girl.

ORIGINAl SCREENPLAy

The Banshees Of inusharon

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fablemans

Tar

Afterson

Charlotte Wells’s script could be a way of giving a nod to her, since she won’t sneak into director, like Sarah Polley. If not, I’ll say Triangle Of Sadness. I actually think Babylon has dropped quite a bit in popularity.

ANIMATED FEATURE:

Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel The Shell With Shoes on

Turning Red

Puss In Boots: The last Wish

Wendell and Wild

It’s such a weird category. GKids usually has a nominee, but with Netflix behind Wendell, and Henry Selick directing, I think it’s enough for Wendell to edge out GKids. Plus, the fact that i don’t know what film they are backing is a problem. Last year, Belle had a lot more momentum.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

All The Beauty and the Bloodshed

All That Breathes

Fire of Love

moon Age Daydream

Descendent

Bas

Basically, I got down to four nominees. I looked at the remaining ones, and figured Netflix would get in here. Descendent has a bigger profile than Last Flight Home. We should be talking about The janes. That would be my choice. Possible upset? Bad Axe sounds great, if enough people saw it.

INTERNATIONAL FILM

All Quiet On The Western Front

Decision To leave

Argentina 1985

Close

The Quiet Girl

One of the strongest lineups in years. If something breaks in, I’d say EO. The donkey film.

ORIGINAl SONG

Top Gun Maverick

RRR

Black Panther Wakanda Forever

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Where The Crawdads Sing

i don’t even know what the spoiler here would be but I’ll have wishful Thinking and say Good Afternoon from Spirited.

BEST ORIGINAl SCORE

Babylon

The Fablemans

All Quiet On The Western Front

The Banshees Of inusharon

Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

VISUAl EFFECTS

Avatar

Top Gun Maverick

All Quiet On The Western Front

Nope

The Batman

Marvel movies are notoriously rushed. They also frequently miss out on visual effects nominations. Black Panther might have bucked that trend once, but twice?

BEST SOUND

Top Gun Maverick

All Quiet On The Western Front

Avatar

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Top Gun Maverick

Empire Of light

The Fablemans

All Quiet On The Western Front

Avatar The Way Of Water

EDITING

Everything Everywhere All At once

The Fablemans

All Quiet On The Western Front

Elvis

Top Gun Maverick

BEST PRODUCTIOn DESIGn

Babylon

everything Everywhere All At Once

Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Elvis

The Fablemans

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Black Panther Wakanda Forever

Babylon

The Woman King

Mrs Harris Goes To Paris

Elvis

BEST MAKEUp

The Whale

Elvis

All Quiet On The Western Front

The Batman

Babylon

As far as the three short categories, there was no real predicting there. I just copied the consensus top 5 in each category at Gold Derby. So, we shall see how my predictions lineup. If I’m right, it’s looking really good for A24 and Netflix.