Golden Globe Predictions

I’m actually live blogging the Golden Globe awards over at mjsbigblog.com, so if you’d like to join us for the part over there, that’s where I’ll be on Sunday night. But, for now, my predictions for how the night will go down.

BEST DRAMA:
Nominees: Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Spotlight, Room
SHOULD WIN: Spotlight
WILL WIN: Spotlight
POSSIBLE UPSET: The Revenant
Spotlight has been picking up a lot of awards, and I don’t expect it to stop here. I’d say The Revenant has the next best chance of winning, but Spotlight really seems to be ahead of the pack here, especially considering The Martian isn’t in the same category.

BEST COMEDY:
Nominees: The Big Short, Joy, The Martian, Spy, Trainwreck
SHOULD WIN: The Martian
WILL WIN: The Martian
POSSIBLE UPSET: The Big Short
Despite the fact that neither The Big Short or The Martian are really comedies, they were nominated here. I expect The Martian to win this.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA:
Nominees: Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Will Smith (Concussion)
SHOULD WIN: Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
WILL WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
POSSIBLE UPSET: Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) or Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
There’s a solid push for DiCaprio this year, and a win here would help him toward the Oscars. I think both Cranston and Redmayne have a shot, if people found DiCaprio’s film too dark.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY:
Nominees: Steve Carell (The Big Short), Christian Bale (The Big Short), Matt Damon (The Martian), Mark Ruffalo (Infinitely Polar Bear), Al Pacino (Danny Collins)
SHOULD WIN: Matt Damon (The Martian)
WILL WIN: Matt Damon (The Martian)
POSSIBLE UPSET: There isn’t one.
I don’t see anyone other than Damon walking away with this. Bale and Carell would split their votes, and the other two were lucky to be nominated.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA:
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), Rooney Mara (Carol), Saorise Ronan (Brooklyn), Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
SHOULD WIN: Brie Larson (Room)
WILL WIN: Brie Larson (Room)?
POSSIBLE UPSET: Literally anyone.
I can’t really predict a winner too hard here. I think Blanchett and Mara will split the votes, but people have also loved Vikander a lot this year, and Ronan also for Brooklyn. I’d imagine this is the tightest race. Larson has had a slight lead going into this, and I’m just going to bet she maintains it.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY:
Nominees: Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), Melissa McCarthy (Spy), Amy Schumer (Trainwreck), Maggie Smith (The Lady In The Van), Lily Tomlin (Grandma)
SHOULD WIN: Amy Schumer (Trainwreck)
WILL WIN: Amy Schumer (Trainwreck)
POSSIBLE UPSET: Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
I think people realize that Lawrence has had better performances. Her film isn’t getting amazing reviews across the board. I think the Golden Globes will recognize new talent here, and someone who was actually in a Comedy this year. If more people had seen Maggie Smith’s film, I’d imagine she’d have a shot here too.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Nominees: Paul Dano (Love and Mercy), Mark Rylance (Bridge Of Spies), Sylvester Stallone (Creed), Idris Elba (Beasts Of No Nation), Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
SHOULD WIN: Idris Elba (Beasts Of No Nation)
WILL WIN: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
POSSIBLE UPSET: Mark Rylance (Bridge Of Spies)
I think the HFPA is going to back the comeback of Stallone over Rylance’s performance. I don’t think Shannon has a shot, and Dano and Elba are really longshots here too.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Nominees: Jane Fonda (Youth), Helen Mirren (Trumbo), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
SHOULD WIN: Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
WILL WIN: Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
POSSIBLE UPSET: Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
I think they’ll go with a game changer here and give it to Vikander, who has been getting all that “next big thing” buzz here. I think there’s a shot that Mirren wins here too, as people love Helen Mirren, and her film skews toward Hollywood types. I’d say the same about Fonda, but Trumbo got more nominations.

BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Todd Haynes (Carol), Ridley Scott (The Martian), Alejandro Innaritu (The Revenant), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
SHOULD WIN: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
WILL WIN: Ridley Scott (The Martian)
POSSIBLE UPSET: Alejandro Innaritu (The Revenant)
This one is a bit spread out. Even Tom McCarthy could win this. I think Haynes is probably the 5th place finisher here. I’d love to see Miller recognized here, but I think they’ll go with the safe bet and pick Scott.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: Anomalisa, The Good Dinosaur, Inside Out, The Peanuts Movie, Shaun The Sheep
SHOULD WIN: Inside Out
WILL WIN: Inside Out
POSSIBLE UPSET: Anomalisa
There’s a shot that Anomalisa could win, but I think Inside Out is a surefire winner here.

BEST SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Room, Spotlight, The Big Short, Steve Jobs, The Hateful Eight
SHOULD WIN: Spotlight
WILL WIN: Spotlight
POSSIBLE UPSET: The Hateful Eight
There’s a chance The Hateful Eight wins here, because of Quentin Tarantino’s name. Getting him up on stage for an acceptance speech could be more interesting than whatever Tom McCarthy has to say, but I think McCarthy will win anyway.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Nominees: Love Me Like You Do (Fifty Shades Of Grey), One Kind Of Love (Love and Mercy), See You Again (Furious 7), Simple Song #3 (Youth), Writings On The Wall (Spectre)
SHOULD WIN: See You Again (Furious 7)
WILL WIN: See You Again (Furious 7)
POSSIBLE UPSET: One Kind Of Love (Love and Mercy)
The sentiment around Paul Walker’s death will carry See You Again to the finish line. One Kind Of Love is ineligible for the Oscar, so there could be a push for that for Brian Wilson.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Nominees: Carol, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs, The Revenant
SHOULD WIN: The Hateful Eight
WILL WIN: The Hateful Eight
POSSIBLE UPSET: The Revenant
I think Ennio Morricone is the favorite here. He should easily win this.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Nominees: The Brand New Testament, The Club, The Fencer, Mustang, Son Of Saul
SHOULD WIN: Son Of Saul
WILL WIN: Son Of Saul
POSSIBLE UPSET: Mustang
I think Son Of Saul has a lot of steam going into this, moreso than the other films. Mustang is a contender, but probably this goes to Son Of Saul.

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