Box Office Predictions: Can ‘Cloverfield’ Top ‘Zootopia’?

The big question this week seems to be if 10 Cloverfield Lane has breakout potential in it. The quasi-sequel to the 2008 hit Cloverfield made 40M on opening weekend, with a ton of hype. At the time, 40M in January was a big freaking deal. 10 Cloverfield Lane has a somewhat uphill battle of coming eight years after the original, when people may not be nearly as excited to see a sequel. Reviews have been generally glowing, with the film currently landing at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, Zootopia has a 99%, and has marked itself as a must-see film for the year. Family films rarely drop even 50%, and a well-reviewed title like Zootopia is hoping to only shed 40% of its major opening last week. That could put Zootopia’s second weekend around 45M, which is above even the original Cloverfield. So unless the sequel has runaway success, 1st place is out of its grasp.

Cloverfield isn’t the only new wide release. Sacha Baron Cohen’s The Brothers Grimsby is hoping that he didn’t lose all his goodwill on The Dictator, which was his lowest solo opener following Borat and Bruno. With a so-so RT score of 55%, this film may live and die on audience word of mouth. The other new release, The Young Messiah, I haven’t even seen a preview for. To be completely honest, unless they’re targeting only church crowds, I think this film is undermarketed. However, if they did target church crowds, this could be a surprise hit. Christian films are often so hard to predict because they don’t always all hit, but when they do, it sends them through the roof.

1) Zootopia- 45M Weekend, 139M Total
2) 10 Cloverfield Lane- 22M Weekend, 22M Total
3) The Brothers Grimsby- 15M Weekend, 15M Total
4) London Has Fallen- 12M Weekend, 41M Total
5) The Young Messiah- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
6) Deadpool- 9M Weekend, 326M Total
7) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot- 4M Weekend, 14M Total
8) Risen- 2.5M Weekend, 33M Total
9) Gods Of Egypt- 2M Weekend, 27M Total
10) Kung Fu Panda 3- 2M Weekend, 137M Total
11) The Revenant- 2M Weekend, 179M Total

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