Summer Box Office Challenge: How Am I Doing?

1) Captain America: Civil War- 430M Total
At 403M, it’s not likely it will hit quite the 430M total. It may squeak out somewhere around 410M. The way Finding Dory is performing, it might not even remain the top film of the summer. Dory is making up ground fast, and is seeing really good week-to-week declines.

2) Finding Dory- 290M Total
I underpredicted this. It already has 286M in just 10 days. It’s likely to have around 360-370M by the end of next weekend, and it has its eyes set on passing Captain America to be the top film of 2016.

3) X-Men Apocalypse- 250M Total
Overpredicted this. X-Men currently has 151M, and will top out around 160-165M. It also won’t be the third highest film of the summer.

4) Independence Day: Resurgence- 230M Total
There’s no way, with a 41M opening that this will even come close. I was betting on nostalgia here, like with Jurassic World, but audiences weren’t having it. They know the difference between Liam Hemsworth and Will Smith.

5) The Secret Lives Of Pets- 225M Total
Hasn’t opened yet, but I still feel good about this. I might have even underpredicted this.

6) Pete’s Dragon- 220M Total
Alice’s weak box office has me a tad worried this might be overprojected.

7) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows- 210M Total
Considering the sequel is looking to top out around 85-90M, I made a huge guessing error here.

8) Alice Through The Looking Glass- 200M Total
Another profound error on my part. A huge flop.

9) Ghostbusters- 185M Total
Hasn’t opened yet.

10) Suicide Squad- 180M Total
Hasn’t opened yet.

11) Jason Bourne- 170M Total
Hasn’t opened yet.

12) Star Trek Beyond- 160M Total
Hasn’t opened yet.

13) Neighbors 2- 140M Total
I was also way off here. Neighbors 2 is sitting at 54.7M with not much left in it. Probably a final gross around 56M.

14) Ice Age: Collision Course- 135M Total
Hasn’t opened yet.

15) Now You See Me 2- 130M Total
At least I didn’t bet the bank on this one. It might get up around 70M, and while I overprojected it, it’s not nearly as far off as some of the others.

16) Central Intelligence- 130M Total
This one will wind up pretty close. With 69M in 10 days, I think it is on track for a 130M finish, or just shy of it.

17) Angry Birds- 120M Total
With 104.9M, I was right in my hunch that Angry Birds wasn’t going to be a huge hit. It will top out around 107M before it’s done, just a little shy of my 120M projection.

18) The BFG- 110M Total
Opens Friday.

19) The Legend Of Tarzan- 100M Total
Opens Friday.

Shoulda had my eye on:
The Conjuring 2- I had it in my honorable mention, saying it would just fall shy of 100M. With 86M and counting, it looks like it’s going to beat that, and end up with around 110-115M before it exits theatres.

Still have my eyes on:
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, Bad Moms, and Sausage Party all have sleeper hit potential, much like how no one really saw We’re The Millers coming. Or they could all just do pretty good box office, and top out in the 70-100M range, which would still be really good for all three films.

I was totally right about:
Warcraft– I called it “the flop of the summer”, and with 43.8M total so far, and huge week-to-week drops, it is very much the flop of the summer, even with Alice, Independence Day, and Ninja Turtles all falling below projections.

Which movie in the top ten will have the highest opening weekend performance? Captain America: Civil War- 180M
Finding Dory didn’t top it, so I feel solid in this guess.
Which movie in the top ten will have the lowest opening weekend performance? Suicide Squad- 50M
Hasn’t happened yet, so still to be determined.
Which movie in the top ten will have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score? Pete’s Dragon- 90%
Still need more info.
Which movie in the top ten will have the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score? Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows- 22%
Actually, Ninja Turtles managed a 37% on Rotten Tomatoes. It won’t be in the top 10, so I’ve lost this question anyway.

The current top 10:
1) Captain America: Civil War- 403.9M Total (YAY!)
2) Finding Dory- 286.5M Total (YAY!)
3) X-Men Apocalypse- 151.1M Total (I have it at 3, and its currently 3, so… yay?)
4) Angry Birds- 104.9M Total
5) The Conjuring 2- 86.9M Total
6) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2- 77.1M Total
7) Alice Through The Looking Glass- 74.5M Total
8) Central Intelligence- 69.3M Total
9) Neighbors 2-54.7M Total
10) Now You See Me 2- 52M Total

My New Projections (even though they don’t count) For The Top 10:
1) Finding Dory- 470M Total
2) Captain America: Civil War- 410M Total
3) The Secret Lives Of Pets- 240M Total
4) Pete’s Dragon- 190M Total
5) Ghostbusters- 180M Total
6) Suicide Squad- 170M Total
7) Jason Bourne- 160M Total
8) X-Men Apocalypse- 160M Total
9) Star Trek: Beyond- 150M Total
10) Ice Age: Collision Course- 135M Total

I was unofficially competing with the guys over at Obsessive Viewer. How are they doing so far?

Matt’s Summer B.O.
Finding Dory – $380,000,000
Captain America: Civil War – $359,000,000
Independence Day: Resurgence – $298,900,000
X-Men: Apocalypse – $225,000,001
Suicide Squad – $215,000,000
Jason Bourne – $200,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $197,000,000
The Secret Life of Pets – $195,000,001
Star Trek Beyond – $145,000,000
The Conjuring 2 – $100,000,000

He banked high on both TMNT2 and ID42 like I did. Otherwise, he’s underprojected both Finding Dory and Captain America, though he did get their placings correct. He overprojected X-Men, and the rest have yet to come out. Not doing too bad so far, might beat me. The Conjuring 2 is unlikely to get in the top 10, unless we have a truly awful summer and more huge flops.

Tiny’s Summer B.O.
Independence Day: Resurgence – $450,000,000
Captain America: Civil War – $395,000,000
Finding Dory – $360,000,000
X Men: Apocalypse – $345,000,000
The Secret Life of Pets – $320,000,000
Suicide Squad – $255,000,000
Ghostbusters – $200,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $185,000,000
Ice Age: Collision Course – $135,000,000
Star Trek Beyond – $125,000,000

Tiny bet HUGE on ID42, which is going to bite him in the butt. He also had Dory below Cap (like I did), and bet way too big on X-Men and Turtles.

Mike’s Summer B.O.
Finding Dory – $410,000,000
Captain America: Civil War – $400,000,000
The Angry Birds Movie – $340,000,000
X-Men: Apocalypse – $300,000,000
Independence Day: Resurgence – $260,000,000
Suicide Squad – $210,000,000
Ghostbusters – $180,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $160,000,000
Star Trek Beyond – $130,000,000
The Secret Life of Pets – $110,000,000

Mike correctly got Dory above Cap, but bet way too big on Angry Birds, X-Men, an ID42. He also has TMNT2 in the Top 10, which isn’t going to make the cut. All of us thought ID42 and TMNT2 would make the top 10, and we’re all getting burned by those films. I was the only one ballsy enough to pick Pete’s Dragon, so I hope it pays off. Please go see Pete’s Dragon. Please? 🙂

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