Box Office Predictions: Will The ‘Bough’ Break ‘Sully’?

In the tradition of No Good Deed and The Perfect Guy comes When The Bough Breaks, which is hoping to stir up another 20M+ opening for a thriller with a primarily black cast in September. To help, the film stars Morris Chestnut, who was also in The Perfect Guy. The studio behind it is trying to act surprised, saying they hope for a 12-14M opening, but most people think this is going to replicate the success of the others and get at least 20M. The question is, will it beat Sully?

Sully is currently tracking in the low 20’s, as awards buzz has helped amplify this true story. Even though this film isn’t about 9/11, one wonders if a film about New York City is either helped or hurt by opening on the same weekend. Nevertheless, Sully is probably going to edge out Bough. Bough might be a strong opener, but I’m not sure Regina Hall is on the same level as Sanaa Lathan or Taraji P Henson, who headlined Perfect and Deed. Bough is hoping Chestnut is enough, and I think the film requires a strong female lead as well.

Bough has not been screened for critics. Sully, however has a 78%. Not mind blowing, but solid.

Also going wide, The Wild Life, which is an international animation film that has already opened in other territories under the name Robinson Crusoe, pulling in 20M internationally. The other film, The Disappointments Room is basically just getting burned off. With a screen count of 1500, and almost no marketing, it could be one of the worst wide openings of all time. If this film made 1.5M, I’d be surprised.

1) Sully- 22M Weekend, 22M Total
2) When The Bough Breaks- 18M Weekend, 18M Total
3) Don’t Breathe- 8M Weekend, 67M Total
4) The Wild Life- 7M Weekend, 7M Total
5) Suicide Squad- 6M Weekend, 308M Total
6) Kubo and the Two Strings- 4M Weekend, 42M Total
7) Pete’s Dragon- 4M Weekend, 71M Total
8) Bad Moms- 4M Weekend, 109M Total
9) Sausage Party- 3M Weekend, 94M Total
10) Hell or High Water- 3M Weekend, 20M Total

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