Box Office Predictions: Can ‘Sully’ Stake ‘Blair Witch’?

Even with all the hype, I think Blair Witch is one of those films that has people going “we’ll wait and see”. They’re going to wait for a friend to see it first, and let them know it’s good, which could make for a lower first weekend take, but help in the weeks to come. It’s a franchise that has fans divided. While the first one is regarded as a groundbreaking classic, not everyone is a fan. The sequel was terrible on all accounts. And it’s been 16 years since that sequel, so this trip back to the woods might just be for a completely different generation. If you look at the reviews, some of them are super positive, suggesting that this sequel is a game changer on all accounts. Other critics suggest that if you know anyone who liked this, you should drop them from your life. So, you could say this is a divisive film.

It has to fend off against Sully, which walked away with an A cinemascore, and has been doing excellent mid-week business. Sully is looking to slightly edge out Blair Witch, and hold the top for a second straight weekend. The other big new release is Bridget Jones’s Baby, which is the top advance seller on Fandango right now, pulling women in who are starved for a good comedy. They’ve basically just had Bad Moms, so Bridget Jones should do well, and the good reviews are only helping.

Snowden finally hits, but as Joseph Gordon Levitt proved with The Walk, he’s not a big star. Some people might be interested in seeing the Edward Snowden story play out, but not enough to get this over 10M. Also opening, PureFlix finally launches the long gestating Hillsong concert movie, which due to a decent screen count and lack of competition, should actually make the top 10.

1) Sully- 20M Weekend, 71M Total
2) Blair Witch- 18M Weekend, 18M Total
3) Bridget Jones’s Baby- 15M Weekend, 15M Total
4) Snowden- 8M Weekend, 8M Total
5) When The Bough Breaks- 6M Weekend, 24M Total
6) Don’t Breathe- 4M Weekend, 74M Total
7) Hillsong- 3.5M Weekend, 3.5M Total
8) Suicide Squad- 3M Weekend, 312M Total
9) Kubo- 2M Weekend, 44M Total
10) Pete’s Dragon- 2M Weekend, 73M Total

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