Box Office Predictions: ‘Moana’ To Lead A Slow Weekend

With our widest new release being Incarnate, opening in 1700 screens, this is definitely a catch-up week. However, this weekend is traditionally always brutal as films drop 50-60% almost no matter what. A really amazing week-to-week hold film will still drop 40%, just because of the post-Thanksgiving doldrums. There are quite a few proven crowdpleasers out right now (Moana, Beasts, Strange, Trolls) that will see their harshest drops to date. Still, Moana will lead the pack as the freshest crowdpleaser out there.

Incarnate isn’t expected to do much. Despite the fact that Krampus performed well in this same timeframe, Incarnate doesn’t have nearly that marketing push behind it. This is a 5M film just trying to make a quick profit. If they spend too much on ads, it blows the budget up too much and it makes it harder to land in the green. In limited release, the Oscar contender Jackie is looking to make its mark. Next weekend, Office Christmas Party is hoping people are looking for some laughs.

1) Moana- 28M Weekend, 121M Total
2) Fantastic Beasts- 18M Weekend, 185M Total
3) Doctor Strange- 7M Weekend, 216M Total
4) Allied- 6M Weekend, 29M Total
5) Arrival- 6M Weekend, 72M Total
6) Trolls- 5.5M Weekend, 142M Total
7) Incarnate- 4M Weekend, 4M Total
8) Bad Santa 2- 3M Weekend, 14M Total
9) Almost Christmas- 3M Weekend, 39M Total
10) Hacksaw Ridge- 3M Weekend, 57M Total

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