After weeks of disappointing titles, with Pirates, Baywatch, Snatched, King Arthur, and to some point even Alien Covenant, all disappointing, can Wonder Woman come in and save the day? The highly anticipated title is currently trending super fresh at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes, so there’s a lot of hope that this will be the first film to course correct the summer and stop the string of flops. Yes, Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2 is a hit, but that film will be entering its fifth weekend. It’s time for something new to carry the torch. Wonder Woman is expected to launch in the same range that Marvel films like Thor and Captain America launched in, which is the 65-75M range. I’m going to bet that Wonder Woman is a bit different, and that the strong reviews will help pull in anyone on the fence. The good thing about the string of flops is that it also lessens the competition for Wonder Woman somewhat. People won’t be still trying to “catch up” on the hot movies they missed, because they clearly just don’t care about them. The only other major release is Captain Underpants, which I don’t see as any kind of threat to Wonder Woman, in terms of demographics.
Captain Underpants, in my opinion, is a stealth ninja. I think this film is set to overperform, as families don’t really have a solid release to flock to. They’ve been stuck watching The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast now for months, and Captain Underpants is the first viable potential hit to cross their paths since March (sorry Wimpy Kid).
As far as the remaining films, Pirates is going to drop 55-60%, Baywatch is doing to fall 60-65%, and the rest just don’t matter at this point.
Next weekend, Tom Cruise tries really hard to revive The Mummy, and the horror sleeper It Comes At Night looks to make an impact.
1) Wonder Woman- 75M Weekend, 75M Total
2) Pirates 5- 28M Weekend, 115M Total
3) Captain Underpants- 25M Weekend, 25M Total
4) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2- 12M Weekend, 357M Total
5) Baywatch- 7M Weekend, 38M Total
6) Alien Covenant- 5.5M Weekend, 68M Total
7) Everything Everything- 4M Weekend, 29M Total
8) Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 4- 2.5M Weekend, 19M Total
9) Snatched- 2M Weekend, 44M Total
10) King Arthur- 2M Weekend, 39M Total