Yes. Disney/Pixar’s Cars 3 will run right over Wonder Woman. Tom Cruise couldn’t do it, even though he runs in all his films, but Cars will manage the feat. The first Cars opened to 60M and finished with 244M, with the sequel faring better at a 66M opening, but finishing lower with 191M. Cars 3 shows that this franchise has a bit of fatigue, and a lot of people hated the second Cars film. Still, it’s a Disney brand, and the only competition is Captain Underpants. Reviews have been OK, but nothing to get excited about.
It is actually opening against three other wide releases. Most notably, the shark thriller 47 Meters Down, which is hoping to replicate the success of The Shallows. Also, Rough Night is opening, which could be a summer sleeper hit. I’m a little cautious of Rough Night because it hasn’t screened for critics. Neither has the Tupac biopic All Eyez On Me.
Obviously, the biggest comp for 47 Meters Down is The Shallows, which surprised last summer with a 16M opening and a 55M final. 47 Meters should do about the same.
All Eyez On Me has less of a comp, because most similar movies don’t open in the dead of summer. 8 Mile opened in November. Get Rich or Die Tryin opened in November. Straight Outta Compton opened in August. I don’t think this has quite the phenomenon built in that Compton had, and the lack of reviews has me worried this film might not be very good. Remember, Compton had an Oscar push, because it was that good. I think there’s an audience for the Tupac biopic, I just question if it has breakout potential.
Rough Night is my biggest question mark. It’s a fresh new comedy with a strong ensemble, and I have to hope that the failures of Snatched and Baywatch means that audiences are still looking for the comedy breakout of the season. Could the failures of previous comedies mean Rough Night has a better chance, or worse? Why hasn’t this film been screened?
1) Cars 3- 60M Weekend, 60M Total
2) Wonder Woman- 30M Weekend, 260M Total
3) Rough Night- 25M Weekend, 25M Total
4) All Eyez On Me- 16M Weekend, 16M Total
5) 47 Meters Down- 15M Weekend, 15M Total
6) The Mummy- 13M Weekend, 54M Total
7) Captain Underpants- 8M Weekend, 58M Total
8) Pirates 5- 5.5M Weekend, 145M Total
9) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2- 4M Weekend, 374M Total
10) It Comes At Night- 3M Weekend, 11M Total