So, the year is shaping up. Pretty much everyone has seen every major release minus a few like Babylon, Black Panther Wakanda Forever, and Avatar: The Way Of Water. But taht’s not stopping the Oscar talk, and the 20 actresses most likely to be one of five nominations announced. If I haven’t listed them, lets just be honest and say 15 of these actresses already won’t be nominated, and these aren’t my personal choices based on who I would vote for. This is pure buzz and industry talk.

1) Michelle Williams (The Fablemans)

Despite the baffling decision to run a campaign for her in leading actress, we have a problem. It’s a supporting performance. And, the fact that Paul Dano, who plays the other half in the parental unit is being pushed in Supporting will just go to reinforce the fat that she is supporting. Dad in Supporting Actor, Mom in Supporting Actress. This would be like if Belfast had run Caitrona Balfe in lead. Why? As far as ignoring campaigns, it happened most recently when Oscar voters decided that there are no lead actors in Judas and the Black Messiah. If they were comfortable nominating both Lakeith Stanfield (who was campaigned in lead) and Daniel Kaluyya in supporting, then they certainly won’t blink at letting Michelle Williams be the front runner here, no matter how much Gold Derby tries to force it to happen by not even ALLOWING voters to predict her in this category.

2) Claire Foy (Women Talking)

Here’s the thing. Claire Foy is one of a massive ensemble that has people buzzing about just how many nominations it could get. The biggest question is who has the better chance right now? Claire Foy or Jessie Buckley? I think it’s more likely both could be nominated, but if I had to pick one, I’ll pick the never nominated yet highly respected Foy.

3) Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)

That’s literally how close I think these two women are. I think these two names keep popping up, which in a very large ensemble says a lot about how the same two performances keep getting mentioned. They seem almost like a package deal. Last year, The Power Of The Dog managed dual Supporting Actor nominations, this year, I think Women Talking can pull off that feat.

4) Stephanie Szu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

She’s holding in there, but unlike other actresses below her, I think she’s trending down. Of the four main cast members, she’s the one where people don’t really have an angle. With Michelle Yeoh, she’s been around forever and hasn’t been nominated. It’s her time. Arguably, the same could be said for Jamie Lee Curtis (who will be mentioned later). Szu may be a favorite for now, but as more films gain traction, it will be hard for her to hold onto her top five spot.

5) Sadie Singh (The Whale)

Another film where multiple people could get a nomination. I’m giving Sadie the edge currently, as she is hot coming off Stranger Things, and her daughter/father relationship with Fraser’s character is reminiscent of what Aronofsky pulled off so well in The Wrestler. True, that didn’t lead to a nomination for Evan Rachel Wood, but that was then, this is now.

6) 6) Carrie Condon (The Banshees Of inusharon)

Condon is rising fast for a film where the focus seems to be on Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson, two actors who are very overdue for a nomination. Banshee’s currently has done well with critics, and if it continues, she could end up taking a spot away.

7) Hong Chou (The Whale)

The biggest threat to Sadie Singh’s potential nomination is one for hong Chou, who just narrowly missed out on this nomination a few years ago for Downsizing. Is it her time? Some critics would pick her over Singh. It’s also possible that the film is entirely about Fraser, and no one but him gets a nomination.

8) Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At once)

While this nomination would be adorable, the only reason she’s trending so high is the conversation around how long she’s been in the business without ever being nominated. Actually, looking at many of the nominees this year, the potential is there for a lot of first time, I’ve been around for a while nominees. From Brendan Fraser, Paul Dano, Michelle Yeoh, and Jamie Lee Curtis among others, we could be inviting a lot of new faces to the table for the first time.

9) Nina hosss (Tar)

Playing the suffering partner to Cate Blanchett’s tour de force performance could net her a nomination if the love for Tar continues in a direction where the rising tide lifts all ships. Much like Condon benefits from more love for Banshees and a narrative to get Colin Farrell his first acting nomination, Cate Blanchett is a foregone conclusion in Besst Actress. The bigger question is, can Tar manage any other nominations?

10) Carey Mulligan (She Said)

The reviews on She Said, at least the early buzz, is that it’s a solid film, but it’s told in a way where the flashy performances are really the brief scene stealers. Mulligan really is a co-lead opposite Zoey Kazan, but is being pushed in supporting. It wouldn’t be her first nomination. I’m fairly certain she won’t get the nomination, but I think we have to see where her film opens.

11) Whoopi Goldberg (Till)

Many people have written off her performance because it’s too short. Judi Dench won an Oscar for about 8 minutes of screentime in Shakespeare In Love. It’s been years since Goldberg has been remotely close, and since she’s also a producer, she could get two nominations this year if Till can work up enough support.

12) Janelle Monae (The Glass Onion)

Even though this is an ensemble, their performance has been getting all the attention. That could work in their favor, but then again, no one from the Knives out ensemble got a nomination. But then again, Netflix has never had a film so good that AMC, Regal, and Cinemark agreed to a wide release. I’ve heard this is better than the first, and if it is, maybe they have a shot.

13) Jean Smart (Babylon)

Despite no one having seen the film, Jean smart is going through such a moment that her presence in this film is generating Oscar buzz. That’s all I really can say about that.

14) Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

That trailer is like her “For your Consideration” moment. It would be nice to hear Bassett’s name called at the Oscar’s. It’s been a hot minute, and nothing says “nominate me” like the grieving mother of a superhero.

15) Anyone From The Woman King

The problem is, there are multiple supporting actress performances, and while the film was well liked at the box office, and by viewers and critics, this seems to be a film destined to be forgotten. unlike some other ensembles where one or two seem to take the lead, the supporting cast of The Woman king all get praise, but ultimately all are not Viola Davis.

16) Vanessa Kirby or Laura Dern (The Son)

Since The Son has been trending downward since its debut, due to a poor reception from critics, Kirby and Dern have both been falling out of the race. Since both are past nominees, with Dern being a past winner, it’s hard to totally ignore them.

17) Samantha Morton (The Whale or She Said)

Supposedly, she actually has small roles in both, and actually slays both. Both are said to be really small, but this onetime Supporting Actress winner could end up surprising everyone if people just keep noticing her work this year was great.

18) Samira Wiley (Causeway)

This Jennifer Lawrence film doesn’t ahve much traction right now, but with Apple behind it, and a late release, it could slide in. I would not be surprised to see Lawrence, but Wiley has earned a lot of acclaim and attention for The Handmaid’s Tale, so who knows.

19) Emma Thompson (Matilda: The musical)

I’m straight up including someone that isn’t even on anyone’s list. but the fact is, Thompson already turned in a criminally underrated performance in Good Luck To You Leo Grande. If Matilda is good, and does well at the box office, Thompson could pull a Meryl Streep and sneak in a nomination from a musical. Heck, Anne Hathaway won not too long ago by singing her way to victory.

20) Sigourney Weaver (Avatar: The Way Of Water)

I’ll give Weaver the last spot. She was kind of the supporting heart and soul of the first film, and if any cast member from Avatar is remotely likely to earn a nomination it is her.

That’s my list for now, but if something new pops up, I’m willing to add to the list. There are several names that I just don’t see a path to victory anywhere. At least these 20 (technically a bit more) all have a path, even if it’s a narrow one.