Last week I ranked 20 supporting actresses based on the likelihood of their nomination, and this week I’m taking on Supporting actor. Those other Oscar betters be damned. I’ve got the real details.

1) Paul Dano (The Fablemans)

Right now, I consider him the front runner. Playing essentially Spielbergs father, I think the supporting races are being lead by the actors playing his parents. I still believe Williams will get a Supporting nomination, and Dano, who has never been nominated, has been in several films where his name could have easily appeared on this list. He somehow feels like a long time coming, and since he’s been acting since he was a kid, that’s actually very true.

2) Ke Huy Quon (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Speaking of child actors, everyone likes a good old fashioned out of nowhere return. And who doesn’t believe the Oscars are going to pick this one time child star, who years ago broke through in a very memorable role as Short Round in Indiana Jones. He’s also one of the only people to get a Gotham nomination. While not a precursor, it is just one of many times potential Oscar voters will see his name on a ballot.

3) Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees Of inusharon)

Yes, another first time nominee. This one is going to get a few eyeballs from other people tracking the Oscars, as Farrell and Gleeson are basically co-leads. I don’t think Gleeson has a shot of being nominated with Farrell in lead, so a campaign for him to get his first Oscar nomination in supporting actor might work. It’s not a sure thing, since it’s a bit of category fraud, but this is the same voting body that determined that Judas and the Black Messiah had no lead actor.

4) Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)

The buzz on his performance is strong, and with him being the only male in a sea of women with a chance at a supporting actor nomination, for a film that is getting rave reviews and might even win the damn thing, his chances of also being a first time nominee are really high.

5) Brad Pitt (Babylon)

This one is sight unseen. but, it’s also Pitt, and he’s in a Damien Chazelle film. Then again, everyone thought The Son was going to be a major player this yearr and that’s not happening. But right now, I’m betting Chazelle, who has gotten all of his films Oscar nominations in at least one category, made another Oscar worthy film. Plus, people really enjoyed Bullet Train this year, and that plus his hilarious supporting role in The lost City made this kind of the year of Pitt.

6) Judd Hirsch (The Fablemans)

Hirsch has been around a long time. If The Fablemans pulls off a second nomination, I’m betting it is for Hirsch over Rogen right now. Hirsch’s scene is said to be short, but really impactful. Judi Dench won an Oscar for a performance that was about 8 minutes long. So, if Hirsch really is that good, maybe he can make the top five.

7) Michael Ward (Empire Of Light)

While it is hard to stand out from a performance by Olivia Coleman, ward has been getting a fair amount of notice for his work in this Sam Mendes film. I’ve predicted quite a few white actors leading the race, and the question is with an increasingly diverse voting block, how will that continue to shape the nominees? The only thing working against Ward is that Empire is considered a dark horse in most categories after a tepid reception. People like it, but they don’t love it.

8) Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

This Jennifer Lawrence starrer could push Henry up if Apple really gives this a go. Considering The Greatest Beer Run Ever fell flat, their best chance right now is causeway, which could be a late season upset. Henry managed a Gotham nomination, meaning he is very much on the board.

9) Seth Rogen (The Fablemans)

Rogen came very close with Steve Jobs, but missed out. He’s likely to miss out again, but who really knows. I think The Fablemans will end up with the most nominations, which could mean two in this category. Or just Dano.

10) Mark Rylance (Bones and All)

Will the Oscars nominate a cannibal movie? That’s the question many are asking, and right now, the Gothams have started that conversation by pushing a yes vote. Rylance was one of the few to get a supporting nomination, which means people are paying attention to him. He’s won once before, so the voters are very aware of him.

11) Woody Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness)A

Nother tough film to nominate, but Harrelson has been getting rave reviews for his performance here. I’m thinking he’ll be left out, but I do think there will be votes for him. he’ll be a name that pops up in at least a few critics circles.

12) Daniel Bruhl (All Quiet On The Western Front)

This Netflix German international Oscar entry has one very familiar face. if the campaign for this film goes well, and Front ends up being a surprise Best Picture nominee, there is a small window for Bruhl. Very small, but worth mentioning.

13) Andre Braugher (She Said)

It’s a long shot, but She Said is still in this race, and Braugher is really the only one possible from that film to get nominated here. Very long shot.

14) Ashton Sanders ( I Wanna Dance With Somebody)

Another long shot, on a sight unseen Whitney Houston biopic. Very long shot. Sanders has a long career in front of him, and this Moonlight actor is likely to still have to wait.

15) michael k Williams (Breakin)

It’s worth noting the possibility of a posthumous nomination for Williams. He’s never been nominated, and it’s likely he still won’t be.

16) Ben Foster (Emancipation)

Will Smith will not be nominated for this film. In fact, Smith starring in this kind of kills the films chances. However, HOWEVER, Foster is LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG overdue. If he’s any good in this film, and Oscar voters also saw him in The Survivor, and feel bad for not getting him in for hell or high Water, Foster might be Emancipations only nomination. I can hope, right?

17) Frankie Faison (Till)

Till has excellent reviews, but they seem to all be for Danielle Deitweiler. Faison is a very long shot.

18) Ralph Fiennes (The menu)

He is getting a lot of praise for his work here. I think The menu is a film people like, but totally misses out on nominations.

19) Miles Teller (Top Gun Maverick)T

Teller probably should have gotten a nomination for Whiplash, and he’s been chasing one ever since. It’s a long shot, but they are pushing this film. Cruise has the better shot, but if people love Top gun more than I could ever assume, Teller could in some fantasy world get nominated.

20) Tobey Maguire (Babylon)o

N the offside chance his performance is somehow better than pitt’s, it’s worth noting that Maguire has never been nominated. Just a fun fact.

Next week, I tackle the Best Actress race. yes, I left some names off. no, I don’t think they’ll be nominated. I put Miles Teller on this list. I don’t think Barry Keough has a single fucking chance at a nomination, no matter what Gold Derby claims his odds are.