The Globes are on Tuesday. It’s a nice little promotional push for some movies that are looking for a boost. A surprise here could put someone on the radar, or do nothing. There isn’t an overlap of voters so these awards could go across the board to the least likely, and it would totally make sense.

one thing has typically been true of the Globes in years prior. They love stars. They love to make them, but they also can easily be schmoozed. Campaigners can prevail. That’s what makes this so hard. But, whether I like it or not, I must choose.

BEST PICTURE DRAMA:

Will Win: Top Gun Maverick

Could Win: Elvis

Would Like To Win: The Fablemans

Won’t Win: Tar, Avatar The Way of Water

My ballot would have said The Fablemans, but something tells me that the giant spectacle that people can’t stop talking about will win this award. I’m really struggling with this, because the other half of me thinks it goes to Elvis. Elvis has kind of been a steady awards performer without just running away with anything. But, Tom Cruise returned his damn trophies, and maybe that matters more to a group like this. But if they want eyes back on this show, a win for Maverick would certainly make things a lot more interesting. I’m sticking with Maverick for now.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

Will Win: Cate Blanchett (Tar)

Could Win: Cate Blanchett (Tar)

Would Like To Win: All Four Of Them

My Vote: Ana De Armas (blonde)

Look, Blanchett is terrific. And without Yeoh or Detweiler to compete against, her strongest competition is Michelle Williams whose supporting turn in The Fablemans is showing up here. She’s the only nominated actor from her film though. Tar is all about Blanchett, which makes it less weird. But snubs in Supporting Actor make me think the Globes aren’t as crazy about The Fablemans. A win for any of the other three would put them potentially in a better position headed into Oscar nominations. No one needs it more than De Armas, who is in a shitty film, but gave her life (basically) for that performance. Her nomination here over Detweiler for Till already spoke volumes. I like it, and I’d give this plucky long shot my vote.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

Will Win: Brendan Fraser (The whale)

Could Win (Austin Butler)

Would Like To Win: Hugh Jackman and Jeremy Pope

My Vote: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

I’m voting for a performance I haven’t seen. Austin actually isn’t in my Top 10 right now. i think he’s got a great shot here, but Fraser’s the clear front runner. if he loses, it’s because the Globes know he isn’t showing up. Fraser spoke out about the Globes a while ago, and confirmed he would not attend. So throwing him a trophy when he’s not there to receive it, it shows that you’re not petty, and you accept that you still have some growth to do. i think the smartest thing a Globe voter can do are vote for the people who say “I’m not doing this”, as a way to bury the hatchet, and make their awards look more accepting and open. But, I’m really 50/50 on this. I could see them taking this chance to give Butler the award, and Elvis could take Picture and Director. A win for Jackman or Pope puts them a lot closer to an Oscar nomination. Nighy is basically a lock for an Oscar nomination, so a Globe win won’t do much for him. He can’t beat Farrell and Fraser at the Oscar’s. It would just be a nice prize.

BEST COMEDY

Will Win: The Banshees Of inusharon

Could Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Would Like To Win: Babylon, Glass Onion, Triangle of Sadness

My Vote: The Banshees of inusharon

This is another one of those 50/50 votes. But, it’s almost feeling like EEAAO is too obvious a front runner, like the Fablemans. And here, we’ve got a real favorite, and the likely winner of Screenplay and Actor. I don’t know the average age of the Foreign Press, but something tells me… not young. That age skewing could be just enough to give Inusharon enough votes. A surprise win for anything else would again position that film closer to a Best Picture nomination. All three are bubble films, and could really benefit from a win here.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY:

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Could Win: Anyone But Anya Taylor Joy

Would Like To Win: Margot Robbie (Babylon)

My Vote: Emma Thompson (Good luck To You Leo Grande)

Yeoh is terrific, but Thompson’s performance is one of my favorites of the year, and there’s no way she gets an Oscar nomination. in fact, that’s why I put Margot Robbie in “Would Like To Win’, because she needs that level of exposure. To somehow beat Yeoh, and all that competition, would make her feel a lot more like a lock for Best Actress, than fighting for that fifth spot. Manville, Thompson, and joy won’t be nominated this year.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Will Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees Of inusharon)

Could Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees Of inusharon)

Would Like To Win: Ralph Fiennes, Diego Calva

My Vote: Colin Farrell (The Banshees Of inusharon)

As much as I love Fiennes, he and Calva are in the extreme dark horse at the Oscars. Driver and Craig have zero chance. So, this isn’t even a fair fight. If Farrell loses here, then the Globes have some secret vendetta against him. That’s the only explanation.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Jamie lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)C

Could Win: Carrie Condon (The Banshees Of inusharon)

Would like To Win: Dolly Deleon (Triangle of Sadness)

My vote: Carrie Condon (The Banshees Of inusharon)

Jamie has been campaigning the absolute fuck out of her performance and this film. if she somehow doesn’t win, it’s because Condon’s the current front runner overall. But, I think this is the one place where Curtis’s schmoozing will pay off. A win for Deleon puts her in a great position to get an Oscar nomination. I think Bassett’s time has faded a bit, and Mulligan must be a placeholder at this point.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Ke Huey Kwon (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Could Win: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees Of inusharon)

Would Like to Win: brad Pitt (Babylon)

My vote: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees Of inusharon)

I think kwon is winning literally almost every award he’s in contention for. if he played the lottery, he’d probably win it. There’s a chance, that with the love for Banshee’s being strong, and Gleeson’s career, that he wins. it would be a surprise, and likely the last thing he wins this season, but it’s a small chance. Brad Pitt stands the most to gain from an upset here, since he’s not considered a lock at the Oscar’s.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Will Win: Steven Spielberg (The Fablemans)Co

I’ll Win: Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)

Would Like To Win: The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

My Vote: The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

I loved The Fablemans, and as fun as it would be… when I personally vote for a director, I think which one of these films benefitted most from who was behind the camera. Which film could not exist without this director. And while I think that’s true in some respects of all five nominees this year, at least on some level, EEAAO is so bizarre that if the team behind the farting Daniel Radcliffe movie didn’t write this, it wouldn’t exist. Spielberg wasn’t the only filmmaker to wax poetic about their childhood this year, or their love of film. Between Empire Of Light, Babylon, and Blonde, we’ve got our love of cinema, and with The Cathedral, Apollo 10 1/2, and Armageddon Time, we saw directors childhoods. But, do I think the Globes are picking Spielberg? yes. i do.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Will Win: The Banshees Of inusharon

Could Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fablemans

Would Like To Win: Women Talking

My vote: Everything Everywhere All At Once

It’s a bonkers concept, so I’d pick EEAAO. But, Martin McDonagh is more well respected already as a writer. With the support for his film, i think Banshees edges out EEAAO and The Fablemans.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Will Win: All Quiet On The Western Front

Could Win: RRR, Decision To Leave

Would Like To Win: RRR

My Vote: All Quiet on The Western Front

Here’s the thing I think I’ve figured out about what’s been happening with All Quiet On The Western Front. It has Netflix. They have money. That’s why it’s sweeping shortlists. They can actually get it out there. RRR is on Netflix, but it isn’t a Netflix original. Why would they help out something that is in direct competition to their film? Decision To leave also has a crap distributor. I think Netflix wins here, and they just happen to have a strong title.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Could Win: Turning Red

Would Like To Win: Marcel The Shell With Shoes On

My vote: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

I think Turning Red is a lot closer to winning than some might think. One of the five nominees doesn’t even have a chance in hell of winning. I’m shocked it’s nominated. So, there are only four nominees here. I refuse to acknowledge that other film. So, you’ve got Dreamworks vs A24 vs Disney/Pixar vs Netflix. Not a bad grouping. A24 seems the odd one out here, as animated films just aren’t their thing, and Marcel is a small film. It has a much better chance at upsetting at the Oscar’s. So, I’m leaning toward Pinocchio, as Del Toro would be making that acceptance speech. Though, a surprise win here for Turning Red would not surprise me at all.

BEST ORIGINAl SCORE:

Will Win: The Fablemans

Could Win: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, Babylon, Women Talking, The Banshees Of inusharon

Would Like To Win: All Of Them.

My Vote: Since I can’t vote for The Batman, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

You know, John williams won’t be around forever. And he’s actually been campaigning this score. Having him possibly accept this award, being able to give one final award to john Williams… who knows how many more opportunities? This is a tight race, and The Fablemans really has the least actual scoring. But, it’s nomination here suggests they don’t care. unlike the Oscar’s where people vote for the categories they work in, the Globes are the HFPA. And they hear music and see names. And they heard music and saw John Williams.

BEST ORIGINAl SONG:W

Ill Win: Hold My Hand (Top Gun Maverick)

Could Win: Everything But Chow Papa.

Would Like To Win: Nottu Nottu (RRR)

I think they go for the epic ending to Top Gun Maverick, but there’s a part of me that sees them choosing that song from RRR, or those hip pop stars writing songs for Black Panther and Where The Crawdads Sing. I feel like I can envision Taylor Swift on stage crying as she wins unexpectedly for a boring song from a shitty movie. That’s what I think of Globe voters.

So, those are my final picks. We will see if I’m right in just a few short days. I’m not bothering with the TV awards. Their lack of supporting category consistency annoys me. Figure out your awards, and stop forcing weird nominations as a result.