An overcrowded weekend at the box office is likely to lead to series low openers for both the Star Trek franchise and the Ice Age franchise. There’s too much for them to compete with to expect either franchise to set a record, and while both openings will still be strong openings, the reality is that they won’t be the biggest in the series. Star Trek is benefiting from a really good string of reviews from critics, reminding audiences this is the most action-packed entry in the series. With 93% right now on Rotten Tomatoes, it has great positioning heading into the weekend. An easy first place finish should be in store, but for a franchise where the first two films opened at 75M and 70M, is 60M a disappointment? Doesn’t matter. A fourth Star Trek is already in the works.
Ice Age is facing the same reality, where no film in the series has opened below 40M. Ice Age might finally be showing its age as it faces Secret Life of Pets and Finding Dory still in the marketplace. Still, the franchise has enough fans that it won’t completely die, but the bigger question is, will this be the last Ice Age film? Critics are not on board, giving the film 15% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s by far the lowest of the franchise, though only the first film has a positive RT score. The franchise has declined with each entry, starting with Ice Age (77%), The Meltdown (57%), Dawn Of The Dinosaurs (45%), Continental Drift (37%), and now Collision Course. Has it lost fans along the way? Continental Drift was the lowest grossing of the franchise, with only 161M domestic, and Collision Course will likely take that title away, as it will be lucky to get 100-110M.
Also opening, Lights Out looks to build on the previous success of horror this summer, with films like The Conjuring 2, The Shallows, and The Purge 3 all overperforming. Lights Out is incredibly buzzy, and has a 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. I honestly feel like the 17M prediction I’m placing is too low, but the marketplace is so crowded. I think Lights Out could easily surprise this weekend and make over 20M. The pic screens at Comic Con tonight, so that should help word of mouth some.
Expanding this week is the bullshit doc Hillary’s America. Like its predecessors 2016 and America, it looks to pander to a very specific audience. That audience gave 2016 a 6.5M opening in its first wide weekend in 2012, but America made only 2.7M in wide release in a non-Presidential campaign year. I’m betting this is more 2016 than America, and sadly people will line up for this garbage.
Also, Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie opens in about 300 screens, and should take in a decent amount of cash, though a top 10 finish is out of reach.
1) Star Trek Beyond- 60M Weekend, 60M Total
2) Ice Age Collision Course- 35M Weekend, 35M Total
3) The Secret Life Of Pets- 26M Weekend, 254M Total
4) Ghostbusters- 21M Weekend, 85M Total
5) Lights Out- 17M Weekend, 17M Total
6) The Legend Of Tarzan- 7M Weekend, 115M Total
7) Finding Dory- 6.5M Weekend, 458M Total
8) Hillary’s America- 6M Weekend, 6M Total
9) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates- 4M Weekend, 39M Total
10) The Purge 3- 3M Weekend, 77M Total
11) Central Intelligence- 3M Weekend, 123M Total
12) The Infiltrator- 2.5M Weekend, 11M Total
13) Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie- 2M Weekend, 2M Total