Box Office Predictions: Will Poor Reviews Kill ‘King Arthur’ and Return ‘Snatched’?

Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 does have some competition coming into its second weekend, but the two new films are poorly reviewed, which will hurt their prospects. Originally, I had thought King Arthur and Snatched would both open in the 20-30M range, but now I’m not so sure. King Arthur in particular is getting some nasty reviews, and a 24% on Rotten Tomatoes. I think reviews have more of an influence on King Arthur than on Snatched. A lot of times, comedies can overcome their poor reviews and still perform well with audiences. The cinemascore will be the true deciding factor on whether or not Snatched has legs going into the crowded summer.

King Arthur boasts Guy Ritchie as the director, but that didn’t necessarily help The Man From UNCLE, which opened to 13.4M and finished at 45M. Charlie Hunnam is the star here, but he’s not really a proven quantity. He has been doing really well in limited release with his drama The Lost City Of Z, which has made 6.6M so far without ever breaking 1,000 screens. King Arthur also doesn’t seem like a Mothers Day crowd. Snatched will undoubtedly get a Mother’s Day boost, and that’s what the studio is hoping for.

Two films open in moderate release, Lowriders and The Wall. Lowriders is in at least 300 screens, and I don’t have a count for The Wall. However, it is showing in a few theatres in my market (actually, more screens than Lowriders). Still, The Wall doesn’t seem like it has mass appeal with Aaron Taylor Johnson as the main lead. The Wall does have a positive RT score right now, so it could sneak that 10th spot, but I think Lowriders has the best shot right now. The Wall might finish in 11th or 12th with just over 1M for the weekend. Also opening is the long shelved Absolutely Anything which features the final performance of Robin Williams, as well as some Monty Python cast. That film also has abysmal reviews, sitting at 16%.

Next weekend, Alien Covenant is likely to put a stop to Guardians run at the top. Alien is currently tracking at 40-50M opening weekend, and with solid reviews coming in, that isn’t likely to change. Also opening, Everything Everything and the new Diary Of A Wimpy Kid film which doesn’t feature the same kids from the first three films.

1) Guardians Of The Galaxy vol 2- 70M Weekend, 255M Total
2) King Arthur- 22M Weekend, 22M Total
3) Snatched- 18M Weekend, 18M Total
4) The Fate Of The Furious- 4M Weekend, 213M Total
5) The Boss Baby- 4M Weekend, 162M Total
6) How To Be A Latin Lover- 3M Weekend, 25M Total
7) Beauty and the Beast- 3M Weekend, 492M Total
8) Baahubali 2- 1.5M Weekend, 17M Total
9) The Circle- 2M Weekend, 19M Total
10) Lowriders- 1.5M Weekend, 1.5M Total

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