Box Office Predictions: The ‘Baywatch’ Against ‘Pirates’ Battle

So, reviews aren’t going to help either of our new releases. We can just throw that out the window. Baywatch has a 19% and Pirates has a 28%. People will not be going to the theatres this weekend because of critics. Honestly, these two films should be review proof anyway. Pirates moreso than Baywatch, but audiences rarely expect critics to enjoy raunchy comedies. Pirates has global superstar Johnny Depp, while Baywatch has global superstar Dwayne Johnson. Both are based on well known properties, but only one can truly rise above to the first place spot. That film is Pirates.

The last Pirates entry, On Stranger Tides, opened in 2011 to 90M, but finished with a disappointing 241M. It was the lowest grossing film in the series, and also the lowest opener since the original (45M). So where does that leave our fifth entry? Probably suffering from franchise fatigue. Still, it is Memorial Day weekend, so hope is not entirely lost. If we get a little cool down from the last series, that should put Pirates at 85M for the four day weekend.

So where does that leave Baywatch? With Snatched kinda bombing at the box office, it leaves Baywatch looking pretty. The trailers have played well, and this films tracking is really solid. The rated R entry is promising to make good on that rating, and it hopes to bring in the same fanbase that made 21 Jump Street successful. In order to find an awful opening for Johnson, you have to venture back to 2013 for Snitch, which opened to 13M, which for that film wasn’t even that bad. Aside from The Tooth Fairy, every Johnson comedy has opened to at least 20M. He’s such an incredibly proven commodity these days that a 20M opening for him could be seen as disappointing. Central Intelligence opened to 35M last year, and I’m betting that Baywatch will do about the same over the three day span, finishing in the low 40’s for the four day weekend. It had late night screenings last night, and opens today, so really Baywatch is looking at 50M over 5 days.

The battle last weekend between Guaridans vol 2 and Alien Covenant was so close. However, Guardians isn’t dropping that hard, and Alien is likely to be hit with a 55-60% drop in week two. Yes, Memorial Day, but still… it will likely swap places with Guardians.

Next weekend, Wonder Woman hopes to crush the competition, but the real question is… how big is Captain Underpants? With the childrens audience being largely underserved by outdated releases (The Boss Baby is still in the top 10 because of lack of competition), will it do better than many expect? Can it capitalize on beating Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 to the big screen? I’m betting… Yes.

1) Pirates 5- 85M 4 Day Weekend, 85M Total
2) Baywatch- 43M 4 Day Weekend, 50M Total
3) Guardians Of The Galaxy vol 2- 23M 4 Day Weekend, 338M Total
4) Alien Covenant- 21M 4 Day Weekend, 70M Total
5) Everything Everything- 8M 4 Day Weekend, 23M Total
6) Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 4- 5.5M 4 Day Weekend, 14M Total
7) Snatched- 5M 4 Day Weekend, 42M Total
8) King Arthur- 4.5M 4 Day Weekend, 35M Total
9) The Fate Of The Furious- 2M 4 Day Weekend, 223M Total
10) The Boss Baby- 2M 4 Day Weekend, 169M Total

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